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00:00.0
Tataas ba ang presyo ng Bitcoin o bababa kaya?
00:03.0
At bakit sinasabi ng mga analysts that September is a red month?
00:07.0
Watch this video para malaman kung ano yung mga nakikita ng mga analysts
00:10.0
and why they think September is gonna be a negative month.
00:14.0
What's up everyone, this is Chris Tan.
00:16.0
Pag-usapan natin ang aking favorite topic ngayon, crypto and in particular Bitcoin.
00:20.0
Ngayon maraming mga analysts sa crypto space are talking about September being a red month
00:25.0
at bakit nila sinasabi yun.
00:27.0
As you guys can see here, they've tracked the performance of Bitcoin every month for the last 10 years.
00:33.0
At makikita natin dito in particular yung September month.
00:36.0
Pag tinignan mo siya over a 10-year period, yung month ng September, 8 years out of 10 years is negative.
00:42.0
Ibig sabihin nun the price of Bitcoin tends to be lower in September
00:46.0
at 2 years lang out of 10 years na may positive returns ang Bitcoin.
00:50.0
The rest of it is all red.
00:52.0
And over the last 6 years, Bitcoin has given a negative return every September.
00:57.0
So based on historical data alone, malaking chance that this September will also be a negative month for Bitcoin.
01:05.0
Pero himayin pa natin yung data para makita nga natin kung ano bang pwede natin ma-expect for the month of September.
01:10.0
So let's look at it from another perspective.
01:12.0
What if we look at it from a 3-month negative period?
01:15.0
Ang 2023 natin, July, was negative ng 4% and also negative ng 10.7% in August.
01:23.0
So tingnan natin yung mga ibang years where they also had a negative July and a negative August.
01:28.0
And determine if we can see a pattern here.
01:30.0
Okay, so in 2014, in 2016, and in 2019, July and August were all negative.
01:38.0
So let's start with 2014.
01:40.0
As you can see, in July, minus 9.69% siya.
01:44.0
And in August, it was minus 17.55%.
01:47.0
And then bumaba pa lalo in September to 19.01%.
01:52.0
In 2016, ganun din yung nangyari.
01:54.0
It started with minus 7.67% in July and another negative 7.49% in August.
02:01.0
And it went up 6% in September.
02:05.0
In 2019, it went down by 6.59%.
02:08.0
And then it went down again by 4.6% in August.
02:12.0
And then by September, it went down 13.38%.
02:15.0
Now let's look at 2023.
02:17.0
In July, it was minus 4% and then minus 11.29% in August.
02:23.0
So based on this information, we can kinda determine kung ano yung magiging return ng Bitcoin for the month of September.
02:30.0
I think it's safe to assume that we could drop from 5% to 10% in the month of September.
02:34.0
That's erring on the safe side.
02:36.0
And if that's the case, that means we could see Bitcoin going to as low as about $23,400.
02:43.0
Pero ito yung interesting sa data natin.
02:45.0
Pag tinignan mo that 8 out of 10 times, Bitcoin was negative returns in September.
02:50.0
If you look at October naman, makikita mo dito that Bitcoin is primarily positive in October.
02:58.0
In the last 10 years, 8 out of 10 years, Bitcoin gave a positive return.
03:03.0
That means dalawang taon lang ang Bitcoin naging negative.
03:07.0
And in the last 4 years, Bitcoin has given a positive return in October.
03:11.0
So as much as we're dreading the September month, I'm actually looking forward to what Bitcoin's price could be in October.
03:17.0
At pag tinignan mo dito sa chart, you'll see that Bitcoin on average has been down 6% in September.
03:23.0
But in October, on average, it's up by 22%.
03:27.0
So even if Bitcoin hits $23,400 in September, it's highly likely that Bitcoin will bounce back to $28,000 to $30,000 by October.
03:38.0
Kaya ang gagawin ko for September is I'm gonna buy a little bit more Bitcoin to be able to position myself for the next run up in October.
03:45.0
Even at $26,000, I think that's a good time to buy some Bitcoin.
03:48.0
And then if it drops to $25,000, I'll be positioning to buy some more.
03:53.0
And if it even drops to $24,000, I also have positions to buy more Bitcoin at that price.
03:58.0
By the way, nothing I say is considered financial advice and please do your own research.
04:02.0
Sana nakatulong itong information na to.
04:04.0
And if you're interested to be able to accumulate some Bitcoins now, I'll leave you my links below for the different exchanges and wallets kung saan ka pwede bumili ng Bitcoin.
04:13.0
And if you have any questions or insights into what's going on or if you agree or disagree, please write it in the comment section below.
04:19.0
I'd love to hear from all of you.
04:20.0
This is Chris Tan, and I look forward to seeing you on my next video.
