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00:00.0
Bitcoins going to hit about a hundred fifty to two hundred thousand dollars
00:05.0
per Bitcoin by end of 2025 to start of 2026. Okay so this is the logic on why
00:11.9
I believe Bitcoin's price is going to go up and why a lot of people believe
00:14.6
Bitcoin's price is going to keep going up. It's called the law of supply and
00:17.7
demand. It's a basic economics principle which means that that the price of any
00:23.4
product or any commodity is dictated by the supply and by the demand. Now I'll
00:29.5
give you an example. If there is a product with very limited supply and a
00:34.0
lot of demand, what happens to the price of the product? The price goes up. Now if
00:39.2
a product has low demand and too much supply, the price goes down. Bitcoin like
00:45.6
any other commodity falls under those same principles. Now why is Bitcoin's
00:50.4
price going to go up? Well there are two shocks coming into the Bitcoin system.
00:56.2
The first one is the supply shock. The upcoming supply shock that I'm referring
01:01.8
to is the Bitcoin halving. The Bitcoin halving happens approximately every
01:06.8
four years. During the halving, the flow of Bitcoin that's actually mined is cut
01:12.0
in half. In the last halving in 2020, the amount of Bitcoins that were mined was
01:17.8
cut to 6.25 Bitcoins per block. By the next halving in approximately April or
01:24.4
May 2024, the amount of Bitcoins mined is gonna be cut to 3.125 Bitcoins per
01:31.0
block. That's a supply shock that's going to affect the price and if you
01:35.0
look at it historically, the price of Bitcoin has gone up dramatically
01:38.7
reaching all-time highs between 12 to 18 months after the halving. During the
01:43.8
first halving in 2012, the Bitcoin price was at $12. Roughly about 12 months
01:49.9
after, the price spiked to $1,200 per Bitcoin. Then in the next halving cycle
01:56.6
in July 2016, the Bitcoin price at that time was at $680. And then 18 months
02:03.9
later, the price shoots up to $19,400 in December 2017. And then the third
02:12.4
halving in May 2020, the price of Bitcoin at that time was at $8,600.
02:19.2
Approximately 18 months later in November 2021, Bitcoin reaches a new
02:23.9
all-time high at around $67,000 per Bitcoin. Today, Bitcoin's price is at
02:30.3
around $25,000 to $26,000. And the halving is happening around April 2024. And I
02:37.0
think Bitcoin's price around April 2024 will be around $30,000 to $35,000. And 18
02:42.9
months after that, what do you think the price will be based on just the supply
02:46.3
shock? Let's also take into consideration the amount of Bitcoins
02:49.5
that are actually being sold on the exchanges. If you look at this chart
02:52.8
right here, you'll see that in November 2022, there were over 2.2 million
02:57.6
Bitcoins on all the exchanges. And after the FTX scandal, people pulled their
03:02.6
Bitcoins out of the exchanges, dropping the number of Bitcoins in all the
03:06.1
exchanges to only 1.8 million Bitcoins. And look what happened to the price. So
03:11.5
if you look at this chart right here, there looks like there's a direct
03:14.3
correlation between the amount of Bitcoins in the exchanges and the price
03:18.3
of Bitcoin. So you have to add that factor into consideration when you're
03:21.8
talking about a supply shock. And if you look at this number, that also means that
03:25.0
there's less than 10% of all Bitcoins in circulation that are on the exchanges.
03:32.9
There is a huge upcoming demand shock in this Bitcoin cycle. And that's the
03:38.7
arrival of all the legacy financial institutions. I'm talking about the
03:42.8
biggest asset managers in the world, including Vanguard, BlackRock, Fidelity,
03:47.6
just to name a few. And a lot of these asset managers are now talking about
03:51.6
Bitcoin and wanting to be able to offer Bitcoin to their clients. I want you to
03:56.2
imagine how big these companies are. These are trillion dollar asset
04:00.7
managers. BlackRock alone handles about 10 to 12 trillion dollars. And now
04:05.8
they're gonna be offering Bitcoin to their clients. And how do I know this
04:09.2
information? That's because these companies have recently all filed for a
04:13.6
Bitcoin ETF, which is a Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund, which allows institutions
04:19.2
and private individuals to be able to hold Bitcoin through their asset
04:23.1
managers. And if you look at the date of the applications, the SEC has to be able
04:28.3
to give their approval or rejection of these applications within the dates that
04:32.3
you're seeing here. And the final deadline that they have to be able to
04:36.4
either approve or reject these applications is in March 2024, just a
04:42.0
month before the halvening. So what's the likelihood that these Bitcoin ETFs will be approved?
04:47.2
Well, one indicator that there's a high probability of these ETFs being
04:50.8
approved. And I don't think it's a matter of if anymore. Honestly, I think it's a
04:54.1
matter of when. Because the Supreme Court has recently ruled in favor of
04:57.8
Grayscale to be able to convert their Bitcoin trust into an ETF. Now, yes, the
05:03.0
SEC has a chance to still appeal that decision, but I can't imagine them
05:06.5
winning this case at this point. Now, as you can see, there's a possibility that
05:10.0
these ETFs can be approved earlier on, and it could come as early as October or
05:15.0
January. But knowing how the SEC moves, they're probably gonna try to delay it
05:18.6
as long as they can. But either way, because when all of these asset managers
05:23.2
are able to offer Bitcoin to their clients, you're looking at a tsunami of
05:27.7
billions of dollars that are going to flood the Bitcoin market. And with the
05:32.7
limited amount of Bitcoins that are actually being traded right now, that
05:36.2
there are not enough Bitcoins to be able to satisfy the cravings of Wall
05:40.6
Street. And that's why I believe the price of Bitcoin is gonna go to at
05:43.6
least a hundred fifty to two hundred thousand by end of 2025 to early 2026,
05:49.8
roughly 18 months after the next halvening. And it is my sincere hope that
05:55.1
Filipinos are gonna be able to get a chance to be able to buy Bitcoin at
05:58.5
these prices before the big asset managers get their hands on Bitcoin.
06:02.6
Because you can bet that once they come in, Bitcoin's price will never be in
06:06.8
these levels ever again. And just as a reminder, I'm not a financial analyst and
06:10.8
nothing I say is considered financial advice. I'm just sharing with you my
06:13.8
thoughts on it and my findings, and make sure to do your own research. And if you
06:18.2
are interested in buying Bitcoin, I'll share with you the links to all the
06:21.4
different exchanges and wallets that I use to be able to buy Bitcoin. This is
06:25.9
Chris Tan, and I hope you enjoyed that video. And if you did, subscribe to my
06:29.0
YouTube channel and click on that notification bell so you're notified of
06:32.3
my latest videos. Thanks so much everyone. I'll see you on the next video.
