02:26.4
But we all know, as early as right now, everyone is talking about next year's elections. It's just the nature of politics in our country.
02:34.0
So what is the OCTA research finding so far as far as the Senate race is concerned? Of course, the most high-profile race. And then from there, let's talk about the bigger implications of that.
02:44.7
You want to share, Professor, your survey?
02:46.8
Yeah, yeah, sure. Okay, I'll just share a screen for everyone watching.
02:50.1
Yes, please go ahead, sir.
02:51.7
Okay, so just for everyone's information, why don't we do a...
02:56.4
A regular survey, quarterly, and this is our Tugonang Masa survey, and this is our first survey for the year, 2024, quarter one.
03:05.0
So it's, yeah, it's around political preferences of adult Filipinos.
03:11.9
And, you know, it was conducted from March 11 to 14, and the gold standard, face-to-face interviews, 1,200 respondents all around the country.
03:24.6
That's Balans Luzon.
03:26.4
The National Capital Legion, Visayas, and Mindanao.
03:30.3
And, of course, the margin of error is plus minus 3%.
03:35.7
Okay, what are the big findings?
03:39.2
Okay, so here are the list of possible winners.
03:44.4
If the election for the Senate was held during the period of the survey, which was March 11 to 14.
03:52.1
So a note to our viewers, these things, these numbers,
03:56.4
these numbers will change, these rankings will change.
03:59.1
Okay, and so when you look at it, look at the list, it's very similar to the Pulse Asia list in many respects.
04:07.0
So we have Erwin Tulfo at 58%.
04:10.6
We have Tito Soto, of course, at 50%, 51%.
04:15.5
Christopher Goh or Bong Goh, Senator Goh, at 49%.
04:20.2
And the new person we added to the list, the disruptor in this list, is...
04:26.4
is, of course, Mr. Ben Tulfo, the brother of Erwin Tulfo.
04:29.8
Another Tulfo, yeah.
04:32.9
No, but this is important because this is the first time we're including him in the list.
04:37.7
And he caused a major disruption at 42%.
04:43.5
So if you do a straight counting, he is in the top five, no?
04:48.9
Okay, and of course, former President Rodrigo Duterte, 38%.
04:53.9
So I guess this is the top five.
04:55.4
And, yeah, this looks similar to the surveys of some of the more prestigious survey companies that have come out.
05:06.3
And to round off, we have Benjamin Abalos, Benher Abalos.
05:12.6
These are the statistically, the personalities with a statistical chance of winning the election.
05:19.3
Being the top 12, I should say.
05:22.7
If the elections were held during the survey.
05:25.4
Okay, so the big surprises here, Ben Tulfo.
05:30.7
Yeah, Ben Tulfo was the big disruptor.
05:32.6
Everybody went down because of him.
05:34.8
Just to give you a sense, Erwin Tulfo was 76%.
05:39.2
He was hovering around 68% to 74% for the last two quarters.
05:46.5
His brother comes into the list.
05:48.3
He's now down by 18 points, which is pretty regular.
05:52.4
Regular, because, you know, it happens with the...
05:55.4
It's the brothers anyway also, no?
05:57.1
So you put two names.
05:58.4
It also happens with the be nice, you know?
06:00.8
So when you put two names in the list, you know, the voters tend to, you know, focus on...
06:09.0
So now he's, what, 58%.
06:11.6
He's 18 points down.
06:14.3
I think the big story here is Aimee Marcos, Senator Aimee Marcos.
06:18.6
She used to be 42%.
06:20.2
She's down 13 points.
06:21.7
In fact, she's the, I think, one of the biggest...
06:30.9
Not slight, but actually a significant decline in her numbers.
06:35.8
She's still within the top 12.
06:38.9
Her range here is 6 to 12.
06:41.2
But her number was 42%.
06:43.9
She was around that area, or that range, I should say.
06:47.4
38 to 44% for the last three quarters.
06:50.6
And for the first quarter of this year,
06:53.7
she went down 13 points.
06:57.2
So these, I think, are the big stories for this particular survey.
07:04.0
You know, the survey findings for the quarter one.
07:07.2
I think another one, if you go down the list, Richard, if you go down, no?
07:13.5
You'll be surprised that Pulong Duterte, another new entrant.
07:21.7
Can you see him from the...
07:26.2
This is kind of surprising to us.
07:34.1
This is the first time we're measuring his numbers.
07:38.6
And he did pretty well.
07:39.7
What do you mean surprised?
07:40.1
Surprised that he's within the range or surprised that he's not higher?
07:44.9
Surprised that he got high marks.
07:47.3
Remember, there are three Dutertes in this list.
07:49.1
He got higher, nominally higher than his brother.
07:52.4
So it also shows.
07:53.7
The power of that brand, Duterte brand.
07:56.2
They're rating higher than some of the more established political names.
08:00.5
Some of the other established political names who are really trying to get into the Senate.
08:04.4
We are not certain Baste or Pulong will run.
08:08.8
But it just goes to show that they have a strong race following as far as the Filipino voter is concerned.
08:17.8
I don't know for some reason, bakit frozen yung screen?
08:24.2
Let me redo it again.
08:25.4
My apologies for that.
08:26.7
So yeah, it's my, it's my, maybe it's just the internet or something.
08:30.4
Yung nga, measure frozen siya.
08:31.9
If you can redo it again.
08:33.4
Is that, is that good now?
08:37.3
I see the first page, but I wonder bakit hindi ko nakikita yung mga ibang pages.
08:42.4
Is that, is that better?
08:44.3
I wonder what's going on.
08:45.6
Bakit yung first page lang pinapakita dito sa site?
08:51.0
As first page lang.
08:51.9
But can you see, Baste?
08:53.7
No, as in, the thing it shows is just the, the tugon ng ma sa first page.
09:02.2
You're using a different, baka may iba pa yung, baka yung window na bukas?
09:06.7
Ah, wala, wala naman.
09:10.0
Usually it doesn't happen.
09:11.1
So I was wondering what's going on.
09:12.3
I mean, your explanation is still valid.
09:14.0
Just for the, um, for the purpose of those who want to see the exact numbers and all.
09:19.5
Gusto mo lang makita nila.
09:20.5
So I was just wondering what was going on.
09:23.7
So there, there are two people we have to talk about.
09:25.8
One is Ben Tulfo and the other one is Baste.
09:28.9
And we have a situation of three Dutertes within the list.
09:34.0
And then you also have a situation of two Tulfos within top five.
09:40.9
Can this be smell?
09:43.2
I don't know what's going on, but it's just, ayan, now it's moving na.
09:46.3
Yeah, it's dynamic na.
09:51.0
Erwin Tulfo at 58.4%.
09:53.7
So it's more or less the same as we see in Pulse Asia.
09:57.4
Just a little higher maybe with us, but you know, it's still within the margin of error.
10:01.9
So you can, so you can corroborate, as you say, you can compare.
10:05.5
Then you can see that, um, we, we can invalid, we can validate, uh, their list.
10:11.1
They can validate ours.
10:13.0
And, uh, the only, I think the only difference is the placement of, uh, Duterte in their
10:17.5
It's a little higher.
10:18.9
Uh, but you know, uh, this is how it came out.
10:24.9
The only big story is Erwin Tulfo lost 18 points, but his brother is in the top three,
10:31.2
So, uh, that split the vote.
10:33.4
Um, uh, Senator Marcos has a 13 point decline.
10:38.3
But she's still within the top 12, uh, from 42, uh, to 29%.
10:44.6
Uh, and then of course, uh, we have, I think still significant Bastet Duterte getting 16%.
10:54.0
So, uh, when we go down the list, yeah, for the traditional opposition, um, the liberals,
11:02.7
I think the highest ranking, uh, no, but it's, it's really Pangilinan Trilon.
11:09.6
The regular names are still there.
11:14.2
Uh, Lenny Robred is 11.7%.
11:16.6
She went down in this particular survey.
11:19.7
But, uh, yeah, this is, uh, I think.
11:23.0
Uh, um, I, uh, you know, in, in terms of the, um, percentage, Pico Pangilinan still
11:29.9
has a very good chance, uh, uh, uh, former Senator Delores, an excellent chance.
11:35.1
So, you know, this is, this, these are just snapshots of a particular period.
11:39.2
Uh, these numbers will change, obviously, as we come closer to the, uh, to October,
11:45.1
And when we start campaigning.
11:47.1
But these are the dominant names in the list.
11:49.2
Uh, Secretary Ralph Rector is not doing so bad at, uh, 13%.
11:53.9
Abigail Binay, uh, is at 14.1.
11:58.0
It's still, these are good numbers, no?
11:59.8
For, uh, uh, people thinking of running for the Senate in the double digits.
12:05.5
So, this is enough.
12:06.0
It's a base to work on, no?
12:08.9
But the, I think the, the big story is, I think, Bam Aquino in our survey, 7.3%.
12:16.3
I think that's the difference between us and, uh, and Pulse, no?
12:20.0
Uh, so, then we go, as we go down this, uh,
12:23.0
uh, um, the highest rate, rate, rated, no, uh, possible candidate, uh, for the left
12:29.9
is Nery Colmenares at 5.4%.
12:32.3
Which is not a surprise, no?
12:34.5
It's not a surprise, and it's stable there at that number.
12:37.3
It's still a good, uh, base to start with.
12:40.0
So, there's, there's some, uh, traction as far as, uh, this, uh, this candidate's name
12:45.4
is concerned, uh, Congressman Nery Colmenares of, uh, the progressives on the left, no?
12:52.1
But wala kayong, ano, yung, uh, awareness level.
12:59.0
We, we actually have, but just for the sake of it.
13:01.1
I mean, in the, in the, yeah, in the, in the, in the.
13:03.6
At the table within the, it was a packed table, eh, almost six.
13:08.9
But we, we, we gave the awareness, uh, numbers for our clients, obviously.
13:14.9
The top 10 have a high awareness already.
13:18.4
Top 12, I'm sorry, yeah.
13:19.5
Almost 100%, yeah.
13:22.1
Uh, except for, uh, Benher Abalos.
13:25.6
So, a little bit than that, no?
13:27.1
Something like, uh, about 90%, 90, 92%.
13:31.7
But, uh, the, the, the relatively, um, high awareness for most of these, uh, top ranking,
13:38.9
uh, senatorial balls, uh, in the top 12.
13:43.3
I mean, but the, this looks like a very packed survey, no?
13:47.5
Kasi even if you go to the lower half, there are people who were sent.
13:52.1
For multiple times.
13:53.4
Forget about people are known, no?
13:56.1
So, I, I, I don't know.
13:57.4
I mean, of course, uh, longitudinally, we can refer to other surveys here, but, I mean,
14:01.8
from both of us, I think our understanding is that this is probably the most competitive
14:06.4
If all of the people we think are gonna run are gonna run, right?
14:09.3
I mean, this is crazy.
14:12.6
It's, it's, it's very tight.
14:14.0
And we feel that at least four slots are the only ones being, uh, relatively open, no?
14:20.7
And you'll notice.
14:21.7
Uh, when you look at, as you go down the list, that the gaps between candidates are
14:26.2
much, much, much smaller, no?
14:28.3
From, uh, from, uh, 10 to 15, no?
14:32.1
So, uh, from rank 10 to 15 or, yeah, it's very competitive.
14:38.3
And I think the magic number for, for, for us is something, uh, above 30%, no?
14:44.2
Anybody above 30% has a very good chance of getting in the top 12.
14:49.6
That looks like the threshold.
14:51.7
Yeah, you, you, that looks like it.
14:53.6
But 20% puts you within the competitive range and 30% more or less puts you almost in a
14:59.4
shoe-in range, right?
15:00.7
Yeah, assured of a spot.
15:03.0
You see, the, the, the vulnerables are those, uh, rank 8 and below it.
15:07.8
So, yeah, it's gonna be very competitive.
15:10.0
Which includes Aimee Marcos, no?
15:12.4
Yeah, for the first time.
15:13.5
For the first time.
15:13.9
It's quite a, quite a shock, no?
15:15.2
It's a shocker considering, you know.
15:17.1
Actually, it's a shocker for us because, uh, you know, she's had, uh, you know, she's had,
15:21.7
she's not a client, by the way, uh, she, we, we, we've been measuring her numbers really
15:27.3
as a proxy also for the administration, no?
15:29.9
Um, and it's, it's gone down and her numbers have gone down, um, and to some extent, although
15:36.8
we haven't reported, uh, the numbers for the administration yet, we're still going over
15:40.8
them, uh, second time.
15:42.6
Uh, there, there's a slight decline, uh, on, on, on major issues.
15:46.2
But Aimee is opposition in a way, right?
15:48.0
I know, maybe, maybe that's part of the problem also.
15:51.7
Where is she actually?
15:52.9
She's more opposition.
15:53.6
I mean, let's be honest about it.
15:56.0
She's, uh, maybe that, that, that erosion, no?
15:58.6
That noise and, uh, the confusion on, uh, which side she is, uh, supposed to be.
16:04.1
I find it also interesting, um, uh, Professor Rai, the, the fact that Isko and Willy Ong
16:09.3
are almost the same.
16:10.9
I mean, it's very.
16:11.7
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
16:12.7
I was wondering how far they were back in the day.
16:14.5
One was presidential ball, now competitive at some point.
16:17.8
One was like a vice presidential that people were not sure about.
16:20.6
And mukhang, eto, baka mag-third time blocking na si Willy Ong, no?
16:24.5
Just like reason.
16:25.7
It's, it's, it's very possible, Richard, eh.
16:27.3
That's very possible.
16:28.0
Eto, may chance na siya mag-third time blocking, no?
16:30.1
Kasi, it's, for the last three quarters, he's been in the top 12.
16:33.8
Yeah, pasok mo siya, eh.
16:34.8
And actually, uh, very few occasions, uh, in the, uh, in the last few quarters that
16:40.6
these numbers have really fluctuated, uh, you know, it's statistically stable.
16:45.4
Except that in this particular quarter, uh, for the last two quarters,
16:50.6
it's been statistically stable.
16:52.3
But the, this third quarter, he, uh, went down slightly because, you know,
16:57.1
you, you put in two, two big names, eh.
16:59.3
Uh, President Duterte and, uh, former President Duterte and, of course,
17:04.9
Ben Tulfoy, disrupted the list.
17:07.3
So, they, they ate into a lot of the, uh, support for the others, no?
17:12.2
So that's one big takeaway that once you, uh, introduce, uh, BNB, right?
17:17.8
Ben and, uh, Baste, diba?
17:21.3
It, it, it kind of scrambled the whole rankings and all of that, which tells you how volatile,
17:26.5
you know, the situation is, including the top guy coming down to 58%, uh, from...
17:31.6
18 points down, 18 points down.
17:33.4
Yeah, yeah, from 70 plus percent.
17:35.0
I mean, that's crazy.
17:35.7
Mid-70s, uh, percent.
17:39.2
So, um, uh, so one implication is if you're Erwin Tulfoy, the biggest threat to you topping
17:44.1
the Senate race, because the point matters to be, is your own brother, right?
17:49.0
And, um, what it looks like.
17:51.2
Ang marites sa akin is yung pinakakuya nila ay napaisip bigla na, wait lang, baka okay
17:56.6
lang ako rin tumakbo dyan.
17:58.0
Kasi, Mon Tulfo wasn't doing too bad in 2019, uh, service, if I'm not mistaken.
18:03.2
And he's the, he's the OG, right?
18:05.7
So, as Tulfo Ron would be quite bad for Erwin, right?
18:09.4
It could really split the vote in ways that happen.
18:11.3
So, the, the explosive part of this is TNT.
18:15.0
Tulfo and Tulfo, you know?
18:16.6
Uh, so, uh, but they're on the opposite sides politically, you have to understand.
18:20.6
And, uh, they're leaning, uh, towards, uh, the Duterte side and, uh, uh, Erwin is,
18:27.7
is, is very much, no, with the administration.
18:30.4
Which is like the Marcoses, right?
18:32.0
One, one is the admin, one is the, the other side.
18:34.9
But, but, okay, I don't, of course, I'm not sure if this was in the survey, but is there
18:40.0
an, um, when people, um, express their preference, meron bang appreciation ng mga ganyan nuances
18:47.0
or it's more really the brand, the name, the, the, the name recall?
18:50.6
We, we don't have the data yet for that, uh, or hopefully we're going to build a probe
18:55.6
on that, uh, and we, we, we link preference with culture, you know?
19:00.3
Of course, it's a big debate in politics, uh, um, but, you know, this is where we're
19:04.5
coming from, from Okta, and that these preferences are built on identities, you know, on cleavages,
19:10.0
on perceptions about, uh, our political culture, you know?
19:14.0
And, and, and you'll see that in the next, uh, set of, uh, survey data that we'll, we're
19:19.3
going to show you.
19:20.6
Uh, but, but yes, brand is important, and you're seeing it, no?
19:24.1
The Tulfo brand is alive and kicking and, and still very competitive.
19:28.7
You're also seeing it with the Duterte brand.
19:30.8
All three, uh, possible candidates, I'm sure, uh, you know, we're not sure if any of them
19:37.5
are actually going to run, are in, uh, the top 15.
19:41.0
So, you know, uh, this is, uh, brand, brand name, you know, uh, is important.
19:47.3
And in this particular midterm elections, if these, if this might look like the cast,
19:52.7
no, it's going to be highly competitive because you have, you're, you're pitting, you know,
19:57.3
very established brands against each other.
19:59.9
And then again, you know, machinery will come in, uh, your network, political network will
20:06.2
Of course, resources will come in.
20:08.1
And, and, and so, you know, uh, you know, to, uh, go to the next part of our survey,
20:13.6
you, you'll notice that, you know, it's also important if you're aligned with the administration,
20:17.3
I think that's a perfect segue.
20:20.1
But before we segue to the next part, because that's where we can break down the alignments
20:23.9
and affiliations and preferences, which is, I think, kudos to Okta for doing that, because
20:28.8
I think that's the kind of service we want to also see more, more data on that because
20:32.5
we generally talking, we talk about DDS versus loyalist in a blogger sense of the word, but
20:37.8
we really need the data.
20:39.4
But, but, uh, for a moment, can we, I understand that, you know, we want to talk about things
20:44.8
based on as much possible as data.
20:47.3
We can get, but let's just say, despite the epistemological limitations, if I can
20:52.1
put it, what is your sense with the rise and rise of Tulfo's?
20:55.7
Because our understanding is that, well, I mean, Rafi Tulfo is also now the front runner,
21:01.2
um, to be the next president of the Philippines.
21:03.6
Although of course, in the Pulse Asia survey, at least from what we see, it's statistically
21:07.0
tied, but his trajectory is just incredible from teens to 30 plus percent right now.
21:13.3
And who knows, right?
21:14.8
If Lenny doesn't run or someone else, probably numbers will go more.
21:17.2
To Tulfo than Sarah, considering the opposition between Sarah and, and, and, and, uh, and,
21:22.2
and Lenny Robredo.
21:23.7
So, um, so this is really the, uh, you're absolutely right.
21:27.3
We can talk about the Duterte as shortly, but the, the, the, the, the thing with the
21:32.9
Tulfos is, um, Basco Dito is the surprise to me is how Duterte is made it to national
21:39.7
politics ahead of Tulfos.
21:41.1
Can I say, if we recall it five, 10 years ago, the Tulfos were already a national brand.
21:46.0
It was just a matter of.
21:47.2
They were already household names and they already had that huge appeal to the masses
21:53.0
as a kind of a savior of the people.
21:55.4
Talagang top na top nila yan.
21:56.6
So in a way you could say this is a belated right harvest of that long-term building of
22:04.3
their brand and, and the appeal that they, they enjoy among the, I mean, and then that
22:07.6
macho savior, I won't say vigilante justice, but you know, let's just call it Tulfo justice.
22:13.6
I interviewed Rafi Tulfo.
22:14.8
So people can check the interview that I had with Rafi Tulfo on this.
22:17.3
Um, but, uh, so, you know, I want to understand where you come from as a political scientist.
22:23.0
Again, I understand because you're now in the survey agencies, you want to be a little
22:26.7
bit, uh, uh, circumspec about, uh, any kind of analysis, but just overall, um,
22:34.0
I agree with the common perceptions about the Tulfo brand.
22:38.2
It's, it's, it's, it's been evolving over time.
22:42.3
Uh, the decision to run was, uh, only recent.
22:45.4
Um, and the decision.
22:47.2
It was, by the way, linked also to the support of the family, you know, uh, to a great
22:51.6
extent, they were associated very strongly with, uh, the brand also.
22:56.3
And, uh, they share many commonalities, not as far as, uh, uh, those, that brand of leadership
23:02.4
and governance is concerned.
23:05.7
Um, yeah, they're, they, they come from the populist mode, no.
23:09.4
And, uh, this, you know, in, in, in an era where, or in a context where we have weak
23:18.4
A state that's characterized as weak on many fronts.
23:21.7
Uh, you find space for these kinds of candidates and the kinds of advocacies and the leadership
23:27.5
style that they promote.
23:29.1
Um, these tend to rise, especially during hard times.
23:33.5
Uh, Richard, you see a lot of populists, uh, rising up, no?
23:37.5
And, and, and, and this particular context that we're in as a country is extremely hard
23:42.5
for most of our countrymen.
23:43.8
Mahirap na hirapan mo yung ating kababayan.
23:46.5
Naikita rin namin.
23:47.1
Sa surveys namin yan, consistently over the last year, no, ang talagang problema, number
23:53.0
one, urgent national concern that people want to resolve, that what people want government
23:57.9
to resolve has always been the high prices of goods and services.
24:01.7
Nahihirapan po sila.
24:02.7
Their, their, uh, second is, of course, uh, accessible food and, of course, higher wages.
24:09.0
So, yan, consistent yan.
24:10.5
Na in, in times of hardship, you know, uh, populists, uh, find space, no?
24:16.5
And, I guess, this is the kind of, uh, uh, population that's very, uh,
24:20.4
I think the term we used is, uh,
24:21.4
It's preferable for both, uh, Filipinos now, yeah.
24:23.9
And the term we use is, uh, um, what's that, uh, weak states, strong Tulfos, right?
24:32.1
So, but, but, but, that's a, that's a problem, you know?
24:34.3
And that's a, that's a struggle, yeah?
24:35.7
We, um, you, you use the weak states, strong society, uh, perspective.
24:40.8
But that's, that's one way of looking at it.
24:42.2
But the populist appeal is very strong with Filipinos.
24:45.4
You have to also understand the two.
24:46.4
Tulfos, I have a particular ethnic, uh, background.
24:49.3
They're, they're Bisaya.
24:50.3
They have a strong support as far as that's concerned.
24:52.7
When you look at their name.
24:53.1
Although their father is Ilocano.
24:54.6
Last time I checked.
24:55.3
Yes, I know, I know.
24:57.5
From Batakpo na yata, eh.
24:58.9
And then, Japanese, Japanese mom nila, yeah.
25:02.0
And then, they, you know, they, they're also popular in, uh, you know,
25:05.6
they're a strong candidate in, in, in this particular sense.
25:09.3
You get votes everywhere.
25:10.4
When you look at the Duterte, let's say, assuming there's a Sara, Rafi,
25:15.4
you know, uh, competition in 2020, which is so far away, no, uh, Rafi will,
25:21.6
will have, uh, will be very competitive because he, he gets votes everywhere.
25:27.1
North, South, Visaya.
25:28.9
I mean, we have a probe.
25:30.5
We just have to ask our, um, uh, you know, our, uh, the, the company had
25:36.2
commissioned it, uh, if we can release, uh, the probe on, uh, Tulfo versus Sara.
25:41.6
But in our probe, uh, Tulfo has not lost.
25:45.4
Uh, Tulsara, Duterte, one-on-one.
25:47.7
In fact, the gap is increasing.
25:50.0
Thank, thank you for.
25:51.1
The reality is, the reality is, we won't give the numbers, siyempre, kasi.
25:56.0
Yeah, yeah, exactly.
25:56.8
No, no, I appreciate, I appreciate that.
26:00.1
The, the, the basic, the basic, uh, perspective is, um, in, in Philippine elections, it's
26:05.8
not just a two-way contest naman, eh.
26:08.3
You haven't seen a two-way contest, okay, uh, in post-march, although Philippines, except,
26:13.5
no, no, except for the contest.
26:15.2
Within Cory Aquino and, uh, President Marcos Sr., perhaps that's always been, uh, you
26:21.2
know, tandems, no?
26:22.6
Multiple tandems competing against each other.
26:24.7
And that's where Rafi Tulfo's weakness is, okay?
26:28.5
Yes, no baluarte.
26:30.4
Duterte's a consistent baluarte.
26:32.4
Even now, despite all the attacks against them, they have a baluarte.
26:36.5
Yes, you can say it's only located in one regional.
26:40.1
Yeah, I mean, the now, but, you know, you still have that.
26:43.0
So in a three-way, four-way contest.
26:45.2
Salah Duterte will always be competitive.
26:49.4
That's a very good point.
26:50.3
Yeah, Kenan Sabico, of course, I understand that.
26:54.3
You know, um, I thank you so much, by the way, for at least confirming, because, uh, you
26:58.3
know, I've been saying for a while that not only in Pausasia, but we see in different
27:02.0
surveys, this, uh, upward trajectory of, uh, Rafi Tulfo.
27:06.2
Obviously, that's where the second preference comes in because it's very possible that a
27:10.0
lot of those candidates there, particularly Leni, I doubt if she'll run in 2028, but of
27:14.2
course, things could change.
27:15.2
If she does well, let's say as a local official in 2025 onwards, uh, so that's where things
27:21.5
could get very interesting, right?
27:22.9
Um, but obviously you're right.
27:24.8
Um, the other important factor, Duterte's and three Duterte's, um, could potentially
27:29.5
I mean, that's next level, right?
27:31.0
We have already it, Mag Ina, right?
27:33.7
The Villars, the Caetanos, but, um, three brothers and three Duterte's is something,
27:40.2
Yeah, this is, uh, this is a veto constituency already.
27:44.8
Uh, yeah, parang ano na, partido na sila, no?
27:47.2
Um, yeah, but, uh, we'll see what if it'll actually happen, you know?
27:52.3
Uh, things could change, uh, between now and October.
27:55.9
And so, para sa ating mga kababayan, nagbabago pa yung mga numero na to.
27:59.5
At meron pang espasyo para sa mga progresibo.
28:02.2
Meron pang espasyo talaga para sa ating mga, sa opposition.
28:06.2
Uh, and of course, you know, wala pa namang kampanya.
28:10.4
Although nagkakampanya na informary ang lahat.
28:14.1
Mukhang pamilya ang, uh, malaking factor dito.
28:18.6
Ang pangalan, pamilya, pera, ang magiging malaking factor dito sa ating, uh, 2025 election.
28:25.2
It's gonna be expensive, very competitive, and parang may alas yung ating, uh, administration.
28:31.9
Kasi marami silang resources.
28:33.2
Sila nakapuesto ngayon.
28:35.0
So those associated with, uh, administration, when you look down the list.
28:39.2
Yeah, but the thing is, that's the, that's the big question.
28:41.3
That's the other big question, Richard.
28:43.0
Saan ba diyan yung administration?
28:44.0
Hindi ba, sino ba siya yung kandidato ng administration?
28:48.6
Uh, wala, parang pala kandidato yung ma-administrate sa prime minister.
28:52.6
I mean, I could only think about Abalos as a solid candidate.
28:55.6
Yeah, Abalos, yeah, that's possible.
28:57.4
But, you know, he's at the, you know, he's at the end of the list, no?
29:01.2
When you look at the top, yeah, medyo, yeah.
29:04.7
Unless Erwin sides with the admin, unless Erwin explicitly, um, come, I mean, you could
29:11.6
have a situation of Ben being in the campaign of the administration.
29:13.8
You could have a situation of Ben being in the campaign of Duterte camp, and then Erwin
29:16.5
on the other side.
29:17.3
That would be an interesting opposition also in that sense, no?
29:19.8
Between two brothers, di ba?
29:21.3
Yeah, but right now, they're not gonna be, there's no, um, Estrada, Ejercito sort of
29:26.4
situation like we had in 2019.
29:27.9
Both of them lost.
29:28.8
I think tama, no?
29:31.0
Then, number 14 si JV ata nun, if I'm not mistaken.
29:37.6
So, so, they're in the top five, eh.
29:40.2
Which is kind of, you know, they eat into each other, splitting the vote.
29:43.6
But they're very competitive.
29:45.8
And with those numbers, you're almost assured, eh.
29:47.9
Eh, assured na, winning, ah, with those numbers.
29:50.9
It doesn't matter whether you top the race, kasi that's the other thing.
29:53.7
If you top the Senate race, it puts you in a position for the bigger conversation.
29:57.7
And if there's gonna be so many Tulfos, it's gonna be a question of who's the, who's the-
30:01.5
You know, if you're a Tulfo right now, you're already part of the conversation
30:05.4
where you have the 2028.
30:07.2
It doesn't matter if you're gonna top it or not.
30:09.1
Ah, but it looks like the way things are, they're top, they're, they're gonna top, no?
30:13.6
Yeah, but, but you have to also look at Tito Soto.
30:16.6
Ah, his numbers have actually improved.
30:20.0
It's not interesting.
30:21.0
But Bong Go is stable.
30:22.2
You know, he hardly changed.
30:24.0
Statistically stable.
30:26.9
But he's crystallizing base nila.
30:28.9
Oh, crystallizing base nila, no?
30:32.2
Bong Go has, ah, you know, these are the things we have to also look at, no?
30:35.2
How Bong Go has evolved into his, an independent candidate, no?
30:38.7
A candidate that has his own base.
30:40.8
Ah, he's not a proxy only for Digong.
30:43.2
Yes, not a proxy anymore.
30:45.2
And he's much higher than his own mentor, his boss.
30:49.5
Yeah, you know, ah, this is, ah, these are significant numbers.
30:53.8
One could also argue that the president's numbers have declined over time.
30:58.1
You know, ah, it's number.
31:00.0
But you can't say that they don't have support.
31:02.0
All three sons are within the top 15.
31:04.6
Higher than even the established, the real people who are, real candidates who want to run.
31:09.2
Ah, don't really think that Bastet and, ah, the president,
31:12.7
ah, Pulong are going to run for the Senate.
31:14.5
So when you take out all these, sorry, it's a dynamic pang list na to, no?
31:19.2
We don't even know if, ah, President Duterte is going to run for the Senate.
31:22.0
But if you take him out, you know, a lot of people will go up, no?
31:25.9
Yun nga eh, I mean, probably if Digong doesn't run,
31:28.1
then you're gonna see a bump in the numbers of the son.
31:30.3
Particularly, suspech ako if this is gonna be Bastet.
31:33.3
Obviously, people are watching that because if Bastet doesn't become the mayor next,
31:38.3
I know, then people are even wondering if Sara will slide down, which would be unprecedented.
31:43.6
But again, this is Philippine politics.
31:45.6
Anything can happen.
31:46.5
I don't want to push you too much because we're trying to keep this as data-driven as possible.
31:50.7
Can we now transition to the second part of this in terms of alignments and affiliations?
31:55.4
Because I think, Jan Solid, you're making a very important contribution.
31:59.3
So kudos to Octav for that.
32:02.0
So this is, can you see this?
32:04.0
Is this, can this be seen?
32:05.5
Again, I'm seeing the first page.
32:07.1
It says the survey 2014 results.
32:12.7
I don't know why.
32:14.0
Okay na, okay na.
32:14.9
When you, baka ulitin na lang, Prof.
32:18.3
Now, I can see this.
32:20.0
Oh, can you slide it down to just see if there's a movement?
32:24.3
Is it moving now?
32:26.4
I don't know why.
32:27.2
But kanina, nais natin na.
32:29.6
Sinasabot na tayo.
32:32.5
Yeah, but the thing is, let me try one.
32:34.0
Okay, hindi natutuwa sa mga surveys niya ah.
32:37.2
It's possible, you know.
32:40.0
I mean, I'm gonna share anyway, um, the links and all.
32:42.7
Just in case people are...
32:44.8
Can this be seen?
32:45.9
Can you move it again?
32:49.5
Yeah, can that be seen?
32:51.3
I mean, we only see a frozen, ano eh, nung first page.
32:54.5
I don't know why.
32:55.6
So, ba't kanina naayos natin eh?
32:57.6
Oo nga, you know.
32:58.8
Let me just check.
33:00.4
Ah, what's, what's going on kaya?
33:03.6
Never ko nakita yung ganun yung nag-profile.
33:08.7
Let me see lang, ano.
33:12.7
No problem, prof.
33:14.2
Um, we wanna make sure.
33:15.6
So, while we're talking, can participants can now see your application?
33:20.0
Frozen pa rin siya.
33:20.9
I don't know why.
33:22.6
Is that, is that going down?
33:27.5
But anyway, um, siguro what we can do is we can just discuss it and you just set the
33:31.1
If ever, I can just share na lang screenshots and all later on.
33:34.5
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
33:35.4
We'll, we'll, while we're talking about it, no, uh, so, our basic question was,
33:42.0
which of the following best describes your political preference?
33:46.4
And, uh, you know, um, we, we, uh, looked at the survey results, no?
33:54.8
And the survey results are this, no?
33:57.0
Um, I'm trying to see if we can still share, uh, Rich, Richard, no?
34:02.4
Do you want, I'll re-ano na lang, re-appoint you na lang as a co-
34:06.0
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
34:06.6
Or, and, and while you're doing that, maybe you can look at your side.
34:09.4
Uh, I sent the file to you anyway.
34:12.0
Oh, baka ako na lang.
34:14.5
Try, try mga double click.
34:16.3
So, while we're talking about it, so, so, we look.
34:19.2
So, first measure siguro, um, Prof, can you give us a background?
34:22.4
Why are we doing these surveys?
34:23.7
Why is this survey important?
34:25.1
Ganun na lang, siguro, the basic questions.
34:27.6
Why, why this survey?
34:28.6
Kasi I didn't see that with other survey agencies.
34:30.9
This is quite unique.
34:31.6
Yeah, actually, this was, ano, this was, uh, client driven, to be brutally honest.
34:35.7
Although, it was, uh, it was not commissioned, no?
34:39.2
Uh, client was wondering.
34:41.7
If, when we had the free question, we had a free space in our survey.
34:46.1
So, uh, he wanted to ask, you know, if, if, is, is there a way to find out partisanship,
34:52.4
As far as, uh, the political context is concerned.
34:55.6
And, uh, you know, the, the implication amongst associates there, uh, we divide along parties,
35:01.6
ideology, uh, but we're not, no?
35:04.8
So, we constructed this as an, uh, you know, a preliminary, uh, question that we want to
35:12.5
But the client was a, uh, a big part of constructing the question.
35:17.2
And, uh, the, the object is, of course, to look at political preference in general and
35:22.8
to look at how we are, um, you know, who every Filipino support at this particular time.
35:30.8
And so, we were happy to get, to generate some information.
35:36.1
Uh, it was also an attempt to test the validity of the question.
35:39.0
We, we could change the question over time.
35:41.5
Um, and so, this is the object of our, uh, probe.
35:45.4
So, uh, I hope that, uh, yeah, is that better?
35:50.0
You can just go down.
35:60.0
You, you, you may sit now, Richard.
36:07.7
Page one, Richard.
36:18.0
That should be good.
36:20.3
Interesting, uh, findings.
36:23.2
So, the basic question is, uh, are you pro-Marcos?
36:27.1
So, the, uh, the statement which best describes you is, is the, the way we, we, we ask the
36:33.6
And I support President Marcos and his administration.
36:36.6
Thirty-one percent.
36:38.2
I support the, the Duterte family and their political alliance.
36:42.0
We classify them as pro-Duterte.
36:43.8
That's twenty percent.
36:45.9
I support the opposition.
36:47.3
We, we didn't give, we didn't define the opposition to our, uh, interviewees as just
36:52.4
the liberal party.
36:53.1
We just said that, you know, this may include the left and the, the, the, the liberal party
36:58.9
or the traditional, uh, opposition.
37:01.7
But that generated a support of four percent.
37:04.8
So, but then this is quite surprising, huh?
37:07.6
Uh, twenty-nine percent.
37:09.0
We call them independents in the study.
37:11.8
I do not support the Marcos administration, the Duterte family, and the opposition.
37:16.8
Twenty-nine percent.
37:19.1
And those ambivalent, fifteen.
37:21.4
Meaning, they refused.
37:22.8
So, ang laki ng anti-system, if I can put it that way.
37:25.9
Yeah, that's right.
37:29.0
Oh, no, but this is a space where the opposition can build on.
37:33.4
Yeah, this is a space also that will be up for grabs if you're part of the Duterte alliance,
37:40.0
building, uh, the new opposition.
37:41.3
In their view, and of course, the Marcos administration was trying to solidify their
37:46.8
So, twenty-nine percent.
37:47.9
So, where is, uh, where, where, where do we locate the Marcoses, no?
37:51.5
The pro-Marcos support, no?
37:52.8
It's largely in the National Capital Region, no?
37:59.0
Uh, they're, they're not very strong at this particular time.
38:02.5
In Mindanao, seventeen percent lang sa kanila.
38:05.7
And, uh, their, their base of support is D&E.
38:10.1
So, when you go to the Duterte.
38:11.1
So, when the Duterte family support, uh, twenty percent of adult Filipinos, um, support
38:18.5
the Duterte family, uh, their base, their base is really Mindanao, fifty-three.
38:22.8
You can see naman, no?
38:24.5
So, talagang may, ano sila, may hold sila sa lugar na yan.
38:28.6
And probably the, the, the low numbers in Mindanao is because of the feud, right?
38:35.1
I mean, we can see that in, in, for instance, the other side survey on the presidential balls.
38:39.9
Ang baba lahat dun sa Mindanao.
38:41.6
And then, dun sa preference also for the president, laki ng baksak ni Marcos sa Mindanao.
38:46.8
You're correct, Richard.
38:47.7
Kasi, um, yung ibang probes natin on trust and approval, bumagsak talaga yung support
38:54.9
sa Mindanao, kaala kay President Marcos.
38:57.8
So, it's consistent, no?
38:59.9
And, and when you look at the, the base of support, it's really Class E.
39:06.7
So, for the twenty-nine percent, which is significant.
39:10.5
Both of them are thirty percent.
39:12.7
So, yung mga sa Pilinla is almost identical.
39:16.8
Pero mas malaki si, yung pro-Marcos group sa Class D.
39:19.9
Which is the big chunk of higher.
39:21.7
Which is fifty-five to sixty percent.
39:22.5
Or voting population.
39:24.7
So, even of the population in general, adult Filipino population.
39:30.1
So, those who do not support is still a huge chunk, no?
39:33.4
And, uh, those who refuse to, um, uh, you know, who are ambivalent.
39:40.6
So, the twenty-nine percent, we, we classify them as independents.
39:45.0
And, and, and you'll know, you'll notice the base of support.
39:47.1
Can you go down to the last three slides?
39:50.0
It's, it's just at the bottom.
39:53.1
Look, like, we can, if, can you put, uh, yeah.
39:57.1
Okay ka pala sa Zoom.
40:00.7
Partner pala tayo.
40:01.7
Pwede tayo partner sa presentation.
40:04.9
Ako yung research assistant.
40:07.0
Gawin niyo na lang ako sa, no?
40:10.1
But look at these numbers.
40:11.4
But I, I, is this useful?
40:13.1
You look at the male.
40:14.3
The demographics of working.
40:17.9
So, uh, at the, the, this is how it's spread at, uh, you know, the regional.
40:21.9
We know that already.
40:22.7
But urban-rural, it's almost the same.
40:24.9
For the Marcos vote.
40:26.4
The pro-Marcos, uh, support, not vote, but support.
40:30.4
Uh, male-female, almost the same.
40:33.0
But look at the age group.
40:35.8
Um, they're, they're pretty balanced.
40:38.9
They're very strong.
40:39.7
They're, well-supported in the critical, uh, 18 to, uh, uh, 35 range.
40:46.5
So that's where, uh, there's lots of support.
40:49.6
And you'll be surprised, no?
40:51.0
55 to 64, ito yung Marcos, ano, maybes, no?
40:55.5
Ito yung, uh, hindi pa naman ako dito sa age group na ito, pero alam mo yun, uh, yeah.
41:06.3
But, but, I, I think interesting yung sa education, mga, yung, actually, ito, ito, ito, ito, ito,
41:09.6
Ito yung educational background ng, ng, uh, Marcos supporter, no?
41:15.2
So, uh, you'll see that, uh, big chunk of them are from high school vocational.
41:21.4
Uh, and interesting but not surprising, Iglesia Ni Cristo is a big, you know, when you look
41:26.4
at the religious breakdown, uh, 55% of the, and the, and the, and then, of course, you're,
41:32.9
you're, ano, you're, you look at the ethnic support, no?
41:37.2
Uh, it's, it's basically Ilocano, Tagalog.
41:43.2
But there's a very small, there's a very strong Cebuano support pa rin.
41:46.0
Twenty-two percent.
41:49.0
Wasn't it found by an Ilocano?
41:51.0
I was just reading lang about Isabella de los Reyes and then Agli pa yan.
41:53.0
But, but, but big chunks there are Roman Catholic, Islam.
41:54.0
So, meaning in the terms of the actual percentage that they have as far as the population is
42:07.0
Very interesting.
42:09.0
Interesting, nga.
42:10.0
But you look at the, the next slide, which is the, the, the family, or, yeah, okay.
42:18.0
So, yeah, it, it, it, you'll, you'll notice their, the support is very different as far
42:24.6
as the age groups are concerned.
42:28.0
Um, yeah, the, the, the big supporters are Islam, no?
42:34.0
Sixty-six percent.
42:35.0
So, uh, when you look at the religious support, no?
42:37.0
Very interesting.
42:38.0
They're the Mindanao factor there.
42:39.0
Yeah, the Mindanao factor.
42:41.0
So, Mindanao is also their base of support.
42:42.0
And, uh, Visaya, no?
42:43.0
Forty-one percent.
42:45.0
What's the number?
42:46.0
One percent na Ilocano.
42:48.0
Which I wonder, sino tong one percent na may Ilocano toto?
42:49.0
I'm gonna research them.
42:50.0
Pagkakot kayo sa akin.
42:51.0
Uwi ako ng bagay soon.
43:12.0
Anyway, uh, so this is a snapshot.
43:14.0
This is a very, very helpful, uh, uh, Professor Ryan.
43:16.8
The meetin reinforces the demographics we know about these two political families
43:24.7
and why they were also very, uh, unbeatable together.
43:30.0
Um, meaning, you know, you can understand their
43:33.9
If they're united, they can really, uh, express themselves.
43:37.0
there will be a lot of continuity as far as
43:38.9
government and politics is concerned, no?
43:41.1
Interesting. But then, they're
43:42.3
bifurcated, not just
43:44.9
around personalities
43:46.6
and personal interests, but also along
43:48.9
policy lines. We also know that, di ba?
43:53.1
become the great divide
43:54.2
between the families, no? One is
43:56.8
very supportive of China,
43:58.7
the other one is not
44:00.7
as supportive, no?
44:04.5
is that yours or mine?
44:07.9
that probably is yours, bro.
44:11.9
very important because, honestly, for
44:13.9
me, the big thing before we talk about the third part,
44:16.1
independence, is, and the reason why
44:17.8
I find it very interesting, aside from
44:19.9
the fact na meron mga sub-demographics,
44:26.7
Kasi kung titignan mo dito,
44:28.4
almost kalahatan ng mga voters
44:30.2
are either undecided, independent,
44:32.5
or medyo traditional
44:33.9
opposition, right?
44:36.0
Sinama mo yung dalawa, 31 plus 20,
44:38.3
that's just 51%. So,
44:40.3
roughly half of the voters are
44:42.4
up for grabs, right? In a sense, for
44:44.4
an order to go to Dirt and Marcos.
44:46.6
This is huge. This is
44:48.4
actually very important if you look at it that way.
44:50.8
Assuming someone consolidates
44:52.8
them into a third force.
44:55.1
If you're running a campaign
44:56.6
for the midterms, this is
44:58.6
important to take note of.
45:01.0
But this is not surprising.
45:02.6
They're not very strong. The administration
45:04.5
is not very strong.
45:08.7
But the thing is, they can consolidate.
45:11.1
When you look at the independents,
45:12.7
a lot of them are still in balance
45:14.9
with Zon Visayas.
45:17.6
That's up for grabs.
45:20.8
So, this is something
45:23.0
that the administration, and even
45:24.7
the opposition, whoever
45:25.9
eventually becomes,
45:28.6
or takes control of it,
45:30.8
however it evolves,
45:33.4
will have to work on.
45:36.8
If you put that plus those who did not respond,
45:40.3
that's around 45%
45:44.3
I find this very, very helpful.
45:46.8
Thank you so much.
45:48.8
I'll just call you Ranjit na lang.
45:50.9
We want to have you more regular.
45:52.7
At least on a first-name basis.
45:55.4
this is very, very helpful.
45:58.9
Obviously, I found nothing
46:00.8
shocking in terms of numbers,
46:02.3
except the 1%. Bakit may 1%
46:06.0
I'm just kidding.
46:09.0
I was just in Baguio last week
46:11.1
before I flew into the US.
46:13.3
Ang dami mga bumpers.
46:14.5
Where are you now?
46:16.3
I'm in Berkeley now.
46:23.6
It's 9pm right now.
46:25.6
Thank you so much for agreeing to morning
46:29.9
Because later this week, we're going to have
46:31.3
Senator Trillianis back again also on our show.
46:35.2
So that's going to be like,
46:37.3
So medyo, you're going to see more
46:38.3
sabog version of me.
46:40.9
5am is not my time talaga eh.
46:43.1
But thank you so much for this.
46:45.9
So Professor, can we look at the big picture now?
46:48.2
And also dito sa independence.
46:49.8
What is your read dito sa independence?
46:51.3
Because I also find this very interesting.
46:55.5
Filipinos who are still,
47:00.0
they may have actually
47:04.0
I mean, the question is,
47:07.9
it still needs a lot of improvement as far as
47:11.1
medyo generic pa siya.
47:15.2
improve this question over time.
47:20.3
this was not developed by Octave.
47:22.8
So the client-based,
47:23.9
the client suggested this question.
47:26.4
And we just ran it for them.
47:31.0
Operationalize lang kayo.
47:33.2
But it's slight improvements
47:35.0
to improve the system.
47:35.8
To improve the validity of the question.
47:38.2
we can break this down ideologically.
47:41.2
We try to find out.
47:42.2
A lot of people are out there
47:44.2
who don't see the administration
47:45.7
or the groups that they want to support.
47:50.7
And that's also good, right?
47:52.7
That the company is not bifurcated by just two families.
47:56.4
Although a big chunk of it is,
47:59.1
I don't know, more than 50% are already basically,
48:02.4
I mean, the pro-Marcos or pro-Detente.
48:04.4
But a big chunk is still open.
48:05.8
And still looking for that group they want to support.
48:10.8
Or they have support.
48:13.3
But we also included the opposition kasi.
48:17.0
And so they don't see the Liberal Party
48:20.4
or the traditional opposition
48:22.2
as the group they want to support.
48:25.5
So that's also good that we,
48:27.7
you know, our own,
48:29.5
but one could also argue there's a divide.
48:31.7
There's a divide between those who have already affiliations
48:34.1
and those who are,
48:35.8
or those who do not.
48:36.8
What's relevant for me here is that
48:39.8
it reaffirms all these old images of Philippine government and politics.
48:44.8
It's very personal.
48:46.8
That our divides are along ethnic cleavages.
48:50.8
And that, you know, the weakness of the party system,
48:55.8
the non-existence of it,
48:57.8
has not disciplined our politics.
48:59.8
It has made our politics ill-disciplined
49:01.8
around all this parochialism and personalism.
49:05.8
But if we had stronger parties,
49:08.8
we could see ourselves be divided along ideas,
49:15.8
instead of just families.
49:17.8
But I think a lot of the data reaffirms all our own,
49:22.8
consistent images of how changed this Philippine politics seems to be.
49:27.8
there's hope in the 29 and the 40% who don't have a position yet.
49:31.8
That's a huge number.
49:34.8
I'm more optimistic than you.
49:35.8
Cautiously more optimistic in a sense that
49:37.8
the two surveys that we discussed today
49:40.8
are two sides of the picture, right?
49:42.8
One side is the continuity part,
49:44.8
particularly continuity in terms of appeal of the Tulfos and Dutertes
49:48.8
and the whole macho populist kind of appeal.
49:52.8
I think both of us argued that
49:53.8
forget about differences between Dutertes and Tulfos.
49:55.8
The Tulfo brothers themselves are extremely different from each other, right?
49:58.8
I have interviewed Raffi,
50:00.8
two very different individuals.
50:02.8
I think Raffi is much more independent so far.
50:05.8
Let's see with Erwin if he's gonna
50:07.8
hew more towards the administration.
50:09.8
And then Ben Tulfo is totally
50:10.8
different conversation, right?
50:12.8
But at the same time,
50:13.8
I think the second survey was very interesting because
50:15.8
almost half of the voters
50:17.8
were either independents or kind of anti-system or something,
50:23.8
that there's hope for change.
50:25.8
Assuming certain things are done.
50:29.8
one could construe
50:30.8
continuity and change.
50:32.8
From the picture being shown by the survey.
50:34.8
Although the data is not enough
50:36.8
to make solid arguments.
50:38.8
there's always that us
50:39.8
taking ourselves out of the survey and looking at
50:41.8
the general trajectory of Philippine politics.
50:43.8
There is a trajectory for reform.
50:46.8
There's a strong sense of continuity
50:49.8
as far as government and politics are concerned.
50:51.8
But there is always that,
50:53.8
that element of change that's happening
50:55.8
and being driven by young people,
50:57.8
by people who are progressive,
50:59.8
who align themselves along ideas.
51:05.8
democracy and development can actually happen
51:07.8
if we all work together.
51:10.8
there's always that movement there.
51:15.8
that movement will have more voice
51:22.8
we hope to see that,
51:24.8
more survey numbers in the future
51:26.8
pointing out to this progressive movement
51:29.8
taking hold of our politics.
51:32.8
thank you very much,
51:35.8
I'm a little sleepy here.
51:36.8
I'm a little sleepy.
51:37.8
Go to sleep first.
51:38.8
Sleep in preparation
51:39.8
for the Senator Trillanes interview.
51:42.8
There's so much going on.
51:43.8
I still have to write a piece
51:44.8
on the quad patrols
51:45.8
in West Philippine CNL.
51:47.8
thank you so much,
51:49.8
This was very helpful data.
51:52.8
I'm going to refer this
51:54.8
in future lectures,
51:58.8
thank you so much,
52:00.8
For the discussions and writings.
52:01.8
We hope to have you again
52:03.8
in the near future
52:05.8
as more interesting surveys,
52:09.8
designed surveys come in
52:11.8
I can see you're hedging a little bit
52:13.8
in a social scientist way.
52:15.8
I want to jump into conclusions.
52:19.8
at least we have something
52:21.8
before we can make a
52:23.8
or more than hopefully conjectural
52:24.8
political analysis.
52:25.8
Thank you very much,
52:26.8
Professor Ranjit Rai
52:27.8
from OCTA Research
52:29.8
University of Philadelphia
52:30.8
Philippines Diliman
52:31.8
Total Science Department
52:33.8
Thank you, Richard.
52:35.8
thank you to all those
52:36.8
who watched today's podcast.
52:39.8
and have a good day,
