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00:00.0
Pwede ba, kunwari, dinampot si Digong ng ICC?
00:09.6
Pwede ba mangyari yung nangyari kay Noinoy ng 2010, nung namatay si Cory?
00:14.6
Is that a necessary formula in this case?
00:17.3
O baka naman hindi kayang matransfer whatever martyrdom that might be created?
00:23.2
Well, ang isang pwede mangyari dinampot si Digong ng ICC,
00:30.0
pero hindi pa yun. Pwede mangyari doon yung demonstrasyon nung panahon na natanggal si ERAP nung May.
00:38.5
Yung nangyari sa Mindyola. Mas matatanda siguro ni Tokayo yan.
00:43.3
Pero yun, malaki yun. Yung tinatawag ng dilawan ng Mayhem of May,
00:48.7
which is actually a spontaneous movement also, outburst in terms of the supporters of the former president ERAP
00:55.1
against the Gloria Macapagalore administration.
00:59.2
I mean, you should not...
00:60.0
I should not rule that out, no?
01:01.3
As a political scientist, I would say that if camps are really divided,
01:05.9
then that might lead towards polarization.
01:08.1
And that polarization is something that is not just bad for the current administration,
01:12.8
it will be bad for many Filipinos.
01:15.1
So, I think that's why the administration is calibrating.
01:19.1
It might be right if the ICC comes in, they have every right to really,
01:24.0
or let's bring someone who is being charged of a crime against humanity
01:30.9
But this administration might really just be trying to at least defer anything there.
01:36.5
I don't know whether they're talking to some people in the ICC.
01:40.7
Hindi natin alam, no?
01:41.9
Because we don't have contacts with the ICC.
01:44.6
Only special people have contacts with the ICC.
01:47.3
Maybe Secretary, Senator Edu has.
01:50.1
May kinala kami ni Sen. Edu na nakikipag-usap eh.
01:55.0
Tanong ko lang, Tokayo, Professor Holmes.
01:59.1
Ito bang, ano nung panahon na ERAP,
02:02.3
talagang napakalawak at napakalalim na kanyang support dito sa NCR.
02:07.7
May ganun bang lalim at lawak na support si Digong dito sa NCR?
02:12.4
Halimbawa, yung minonitor ko na rally nila last Saturday,
02:16.7
eh talagang isang platitong mane.
02:18.7
At yung rally ni Kibuloy, more than a month ago,
02:23.5
eh hindi naman lumampas ng 2,000, 3,000.
02:26.1
So, yun yung isa.
02:29.1
Ibang klase si ERAP dito sa National Capital Region,
02:32.8
especially sa mga squatters, sa mga urban poor nung panahon na yun.
02:37.5
Kaya, yun yung isa.
02:39.1
Ikalawa ay yung military.
02:41.7
Dahil at this point, baga man may mga malaki yung impluensya ni Digong
02:46.7
sa pag-increase ng sahod ng military at saka police
02:50.4
at pag-dami ng kanilang mga pensyon at mga benefits,
02:54.9
ay yung isang mahalagang factor na,
02:59.1
na posibleng hindi mag-trigger sa military na pumilos
03:03.7
kahit halimbawa hulihin si Digong at maging magmukhang martir,
03:08.9
ay ang identification kasi ng military sa mga Duterte ay pro-China.
03:15.2
And the military is definitely not pro-China.
03:19.0
Yun yung isang variable para mapigilan yung pagiging martir ni Digong.
03:25.5
Siguro sa Dabao or parts of Mindanao,
03:29.1
dahil sinabi ni Digong na pag siya ay huhulihin,
03:32.5
imamasakra niya yung ICC at tapos ay magsisuicide siya.
03:36.8
Siguro pag ganun yung telenovela aspect,
03:39.7
pwedeng merong matrigger yun sa Mindanao, sa Dabao.
03:43.6
Pero not necessarily sa NCR.
03:46.3
Pero hindi naman tayo pwedeng maging NCR-centric rito, Tokayo.
03:50.6
May tinatawag sa social sciences na anomy.
03:53.8
May isang kaganapan na magbiglang magbubukso ng damdamin ng maraming individual.
03:59.1
So hindi natin malalaman kung itong anomic event na ito ay maaaring maganap kung siya ay huhulihin.
04:04.6
At kung siya ay huhulihin, hindi naman siguro sa NCR, dahil hindi naman tutungtong sa NCR yan, magaganap yan.
04:10.6
At nakita mo naman yung nangyari na tinatangkang paghuli, kikikabuloy.
04:14.6
Sikikabuloy pa lang yun, di ba? Hindi mahuli-huli.
04:18.6
Hindi natin alam kung anong mayayari.
04:21.6
But yung potential ng maaaring maging kaguluhan, hindi mo pwedeng isang tabi yun.
04:29.1
Hindi mo pwedeng i-rule out yun.
04:32.1
Kasi nga, ang pinag-uusapan natin rito ay isang dating Pangulo na hindi naman, hindi gano'ng kababaang frustrating ang pagtitiwala ng mga tao sa kanya.
04:45.1
Hindi pa rin ng ibang nakaraang Pangulo. Mataas pa rin.
04:49.1
Pag tingnan mo nga yung senatorial preferences, that's about 40 percent, close to 40 percent.
04:55.1
So that's not a low figure.
04:58.1
So you look at a person who are dealing with a person who has that much support, who's still trusted by significant majority of Filipinos,
05:06.1
and maybe a proportion of that one will voluntarily go out.
05:11.1
And as I said, we're not ruling that out. I'm not. And that should not be ruled out.
05:17.1
And I think that's what the administration is fearful of.
05:20.1
Yes. Mukhang yan yung debate sa loob ng administration.
05:25.1
Dahil yan nga sinasabi mo.
05:28.1
Yung isang aspeto naman ay kung magsusurvive yung mga Duterte beyond the midterms at si Sara ay mataas pa rin going into 2028
05:38.1
at walang kandidato yung mga Marcoses going into 2028 ay inaasahan nila na yung mga umalis sa mga Duterte ay babalik ulit sa kanila.
05:49.1
Yun din ang inaasahan ng mga Duterte.
05:51.1
So if the Duterte survives beyond the midterms, ang delikado naman ay yung mga Marcoses.
05:57.1
Na baka sila yung balikan at gantihan. Dahil yung mga Duterte ay mga farmer eh. Nagtatanim yan eh. At gagantihan.
06:07.1
Yun naman yung takot ng mga kasama sa kampo, sa official family ni BBM kung sakaling ay hindi darating yung ICC before the midterms.
06:23.1
Well sarangayon ako sa iyo.
06:25.1
Pero tandaan natin may dalawang Marcos na magkaibang posisyon.
